M. Rizvanovic et al. 2018. Persistence of genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure... beetles...
Mirnesa Rizvanovic, Jonathan D. Kennedy, David Nogues-Bravo, Katharine A. Marske. 2018.
Persistence of genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure of three New Zealand forest beetles under climate change.
DIVERSITY and DISTRIBUTION, 2018, 12 pp.
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12834
Ôàéë PDF: rizvanovic_et_al_2018_new_zealand_diversity_and_distributions.pdf
Abstract
Aim: Contemporary climate change is predicted to impact all levels of biodiversity,
including intraspecific genetic diversity, the evolutionary basis for future adaptation.
While numerous studies use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict speciesÒ
future distributions, relatively few investigate potential climatic impacts on the spatial structure of genetic diversity, and how it varies across species ranges. We revisited phylogeographic data for three New Zealand forest beetles to predict the effects
of climate change on the geographic distributions, genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure for each species.
Location: New Zealand
Methods: We used ensemble SDMs to predict potential distributions for
Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae),
Brachynopus scutellaris (Staphylinidae) and
Epistranus lawsoni (Zopheridae)
in 2035, 2065 and 2100.
To assess the impact of predicted range loss on
genetic diversity and phylogeographic structure, we estimated haplotype and nucleotide
diversity, Ô/ST, Average Taxonomic Distinctness (AvTax),
Phylogenetic
Diversity (PD) and Net Relatedness Index (NRI) under current and future climatic
scenarios, excluding sequences from localities predicted to become unsuitable. We
tested whether predicted population loss was spatially clustered and how losses
were distributed across the phylogenies of each species.
Results: Agyrtodes labralis is predicted to lose parts of its current distribution by
2100, with the loss of 50% of unique haplotypes and a significant reduction in PD,
while Brachynopus scutellaris and Epistranus lawsoni will likely experience an expansion in climatically suitable area and little change in genetic diversity. Brachynopus
scutellaris populations are predicted to be more phylogenetically clustered than expected by 2100, but changes in AvTax were negligible for all species.
Main conclusions: We demonstrate that the loss of genetic diversity under climate
change is significant; however, intraspecific lineages with deep genetic divergences
are widely distributed, buffering against greater change in phylogeographic structure.
For species with strong geographic clustering of genetic diversity,
climate change impacts may be quite different.
